North America’s Economic Future!! Something Bigger Going To Happen” – Peter Zeihan
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🌎 Dive into the future of North America’s economy with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan! In this eye-opening discussion, Zeihan delves into the dynamics shaping the economic landscape of the continent and offers insights into the transformative shifts ahead.
💡 What’s driving North America’s economic future? How will geopolitical factors impact trade, investment, and prosperity in the region? Join us as Peter Zeihan provides expert analysis and forecasts what’s next for the continent’s economic trajectory.
🔍 From demographic trends to energy resources, Zeihan explores the key factors driving North America’s economic evolution and identifies the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Don’t miss out on this thought-provoking exploration of the forces shaping tomorrow’s economy!
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Texas has some of the country’s higher property taxes but because it has that 0% income tax you get this interesting dichotomy remember that Texas is a big state and it’s a relatively flat State and most of its Metro regions can expand in multiple directions without a problem those higher property taxes will always
Be closer to the city core and so as you go into the suburbs and the exurbs and ultimately the hinterland in the countryside property taxes drop off you combine that with a 0% income tax and it is very easy easy for a property developer or an a business investor to
Come in and set up shops on the edge of a Metro region where not only is the tax profile low but the ability of people to move in and start new is very low so I live about 10 miles outside of Austin my property taxes are one quarter of what
They would be if I lived inside Austin and so a lot of the investment that is coming into new manuf facturing facilities or new businesses in general happens on the outskirts rather than in the core it’s cheaper easier to attract populations one of the things that the Texas governorship has gotten right over
The last 25 years is kind of well well it’s really rude they wait for a state to have financial problems and when that state is doing the rational things of cutting services and increasing taxes to kind of get their finances back under control the Texas governor will show up
With a few Mayors and a few development boards and do a road show in whatever the state happens to be whether it’s California or more recently Illinois they’ll say hey just sell you know we have no state taxes we have low taxes on everything if you move your company to
Texas we won’t tax you for the first 15 to 20 years and by the way here’s the mayor of Corpus Christie who can give you all the specifics of what you might need in order to make an informed decision and every time they come back with several billion dollars of
Companies you know moving shop it’s rude but it really works and it’s really effective and then the companies stick around and 20 years later those companies are no longer in the periphery and all the sunk costs are there and it’s all the stories that you want if
You’re a Metro region for how to build and grow and so of Texas’s top five Metro regions all five have traditionally been in the top 20 list for fastest growing American cities since 1995 California is the most economically unequal state in the country uh you can blame some of this on
Some of their various regulatory structures so we all talk about Silicon Valley being the employment base that really matters and it is but the regulatory heft has now reached the point that there are no startups in California because they can’t afford to operate in California so usually what
Happens is they’ll start somewhere else Silicon Valley agents will go out Scout them out and then just buy them and move their populations entirely to Silicon Valley to be folded into a major company so you just don’t see that Force that ecosystem of startups that you’re used to and that is really really
Exacerbating the inequality issue it’s driven up prices because when you pay several million dollars to buy up a college student’s startup that college student comes to California already being a millionaire and all of his employees are all of a sudden already earning six digits and they can afford
To bid up house prices so the homeless problem that we have in California for the most part is because people on the lower end of the in scale simply been priced out of having homes that has not yet generated a social crisis in California but if this keeps up it will
So that’s problem one problem two is geographic the California cities have expl have expanded to almost their maximum iteration now and their only option is to build up now that’s less true for say la as it is for San Diego or San Francisco but that has generated rents and property prices that are
Extreme and in San Francisco where you’ve got vertical limits on how high you can build it’s become worse and worse and worse so that’s problem two problem three is international because most of California’s value added happens in the services and the tech sector and not in manufacturing they are the state that is
Most dependent upon International Supply chains in order to operate as of the regulations on energy and environmental concerns they are the state that is most dependent on for foreign oil in order to operate so they have become the state most exposed to every problem in the International System which means with
The Americans losing interest in that system California is the state that has the furthest to fall when this system breaks right now for example the iPhone is built in 1,200 different facilities in 50 different countries California apple is dependent upon that Network right what happens when global trade
Breaks down they’ve got to find a way to retool their entire system to deal with maybe 10% of the number of facilities they have right now that is going to be a hell of a an adjustment to make now Seattle has two reasons that it has that
Situation number one it’s one of those Gateway cities for Capital flights so you get a a bunch of price insensitive investors coming up and buying whatever they can so number one you got price insensitive purchasers second it’s a land issue it’s a geography issue right Seattle the city of Seattle is on an
Ismos they can only expand up and down the ismos and they’ve pretty much reached all the way to Tacoma and we’re reaching up towards the Border there’s nowhere else to go so if you can’t build you have to increase your price uh and that squeezes everybody out to a certain
Degree that’s what’s going on in Manhattan can you imagine what Manhattan would be if Brooklyn wasn’t there they’re just nowhere for the prices to go but up on the flip side this is probably more sustainable than what is going on in California the inequality issue is not nearly as bad there are a
Lot of other areas in Washington that you can go that look interesting and you have near captive companies like Google and Boeing who have so much money and Industrial plants sunk into the Metro region that they’re not even going to consider moving that doesn’t mean they’re always going to be easy to deal
With when the Seattle City council tried to put into tax into place to generate more affordable housing Seattle basically said we will never add another job in Seattle again if you do this right so there’s a tension and that is unavoidable but it’s a much better situation than California is finding
Itself in because Seattle Washington they’re not nearly as integrated into Global Supply chains as the Silicon Valley region is Hawaii you got to remember it’s got a small population half of them live in one city and that one city basically has one East West Road that everybody has to live on I
Mean when your island is a part of a collapsed volcanic cone you can’t really go up uh and so everybody’s concentrated in this one tiny tiny little footprint so of course you’re gonna have price appreciation of course you’re gonna have horrible traffic and because it’s the first stop for the Japanese company the
United States of course you’re going to have a lot of forign capital flight that goes into it as long as the world is scared and or as long as Japan has money to burn property prices in Honolulu are going to be strong and Rising I don’t
Think it’s ever going to come down you move outside of Honolulu and you don’t have a single Market you’ve got dozens almost hundreds of markets on the edges of all of these islands that trade on their own mechanics but the fact remains that all the flat land that is near the
Coast that people want to live on has already been built on and so if you want to build there you have to buy a pre-existing property level it and start over and the regulations for that are a Thicket that varies not just Island by Island in town by town but often times
Block by block I just keep in mind that now that NAFTA has been renegotiated the biggest question mark that was hovering over the Mexican economy has been resolved and I don’t think that ratification of NAFTA is going to face meaningful conflict in Congress I think it’ll be ratified this
Year so the Glide path or the flight path for the Mexican system looks pretty robust and anyone who’s integrated into that looks like they’re going to do very well Texas is the state of course that’s going to benefit that most from that the great PL State and the states of the I35
Corridor are second in line and that is probably the part of the country that I think is going to be most interesting from an economic growth point of view moving forward