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Is Tesla's 50% Growth Target In Jeopardy?



Merch https://www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
Patreon https://www.patreon.com/farzadmesbahi
Twitter @farzyness

Remo’s YouTube channel https://youtube.com/@remo

For today’s community forum, we will discuss the latest Tesla and Elon Musk news, including the EV tax credit, Tesla’s 50% growth being in Jeopardy, and whatever else comes up!

I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.

Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.

My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.

If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!

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Twitter @farzyness

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Timestamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:35 Cybertruck
00:48:15 IRA EV Tax Credit
01:17:10 Community Q&A

45 Comments

  1. No one talks about companies that are doing conversions with your ice vehicles turning them to EV..This will be a variables that consumers are looking at also so the competition for going green everyone once a piece of the pie.

  2. Why didn't these Tesla know-it-alls, say, hey guys Tesla is way overprices, wait for a serious pullback, them sell everything and buy Tesla stocks. How do I believe anything they say now. Well at least they make out well on YT not telling us the MOST FRICKEN IMPORTANT THINGS

  3. Cyber truck is fugly, but im an old truck fan. Im also not a fan of the big over built trucks of today. I grew up in the country, pickups are simple and not showy to me. Id love a work horse, under the radar pickup out of Tesla. Something more like a Rivian or a Ford F-150

  4. Tesla semi's Baby ! Paid for in cash by most trucking companies that will save them money plus tax write off..i see a huge demand coming.

  5. Legacy is going to pump hybrids. The IRS took away the incentive to make SUV EVs.

  6. My friend husband and wife, got His new Model Y long range today at Serramonte Tesla near San Francisco, Calif. at 1 PM Friday. Add that to the list of Tesla cars Received in 2022. They got tired of me talking about my Model 3 with FSD I bought this year. so they decided to buy one with $7500 discount with10K of free charging. How cool is that. My son will but Tesla next year but has installed his solar like his Dad this year for free energy from the sun

  7. Did they have the Cyber Truck floating in water to Wow the visitor??? or did they let you have a ride across the lake while using a fishing rod to catch fish for dinner.?????

  8. Once my Mom’s house is sold, the proceeds will be used to buy a Tesla Roadster. I have almost 4 years track time as a SCCA road racer i finish 3rd out of 30 cars at the end of the season plus set the lap record at both Sears Pt Raceway and laguna Sega. Maybe I make a one time youtube video of the Roadster going around the track. I know enough to be a teacher so maybe I can do a documentary. If you buy a race car, race it on the track.

  9. One quote we will never see is Elon saying: "What do we do with all these batteries?"

    A couple of thoughts on content.
    Seminars! The first one discusses the operation of Mega Chargers i.e. installations, need (is almost as huge as charging infrastructure). Relationship to mega packs and equivalents.
    Second a separate discussion about mega packs with similar thoughts.
    One thing I learned lately is I do not like a gaggle of talking heads on. Maximum is 6 and preferably 4. Good thoughts from a few rather than one thought from many. May just be me.

  10. I am a HUGE tesla bull, BUT in the last year I’ve realized this “community” is just an echo chamber. Barely anyone raised any concerns for tesla except for a very few (chicken genius – and he got ridiculed by all of tesla community).
    I’ve realized that there is no point in being part of the tesla community. Everyone more or less says the same thing. Everyone means well but it doesn’t serve being “fully” informed.

  11. Tesla is a once in a lifetime company but for investing purposes we need to compare tesla to other tech stocks. Compare to apple, msft, google, fb, etc. we keep saying they are more than a car company so comparing them to legacy auto is irrelevant.

  12. A comment to Remo; Why are you saying the cybertruck is to big for europe??
    There are lots of RAM 1500 or Ford f-150 in europe, both of these are all over europe, and they are a tad bigger than the cybertruck
    There are millions of Delivery veichles, and semis all over europe..
    Of course there are places where cybertruck would be to big – but it will for sure fit so many places..👍🇳🇴

  13. Is Tesla's 50% Growth Target In Jeopardy? As any mathematician will tell you, there are many answers to that question depending on how you use the available data. For instance, if you limit yourself to 2021 and 2022, then Tesla sold 936,172 cars in 2021. So 50% yoy growth means 1,404,258.
    What if you go back 5 years to 2017? In 2017 Tesla produced 103,014. So 50% yoy growth from 2017 would require Tesla to deliver 782,262 in 2022. Exceeded!
    Go back to 2013. Tesla delivered 22,442 cars. So 50% yoy growth from 2013 would require Tesla to deliver 862,745 in 2022. Exceeded!
    So I guess you really need to go back to when Elon or Tesla made the announcement that they intend Tesla to growth 50% yoy. The data should be analysed from that year, not sooner and not later.

  14. A 50% growth is always in jeopardy – the bigger you get. Growing from 50,000 units to 75,000 units is one thing. Growing from 5 million to 7.5 million is a lot lot harder.

  15. I am an Australian living in Vietnam. I have ordered a Cybertruck in Australia and after explaining to friends why I did so, they have also pre ordered. We all want the largest size Tesla will make. Indeed, the tray needs to be big to be useful – I will carry my BMW GS 1200 in the tray. In Vietnam, population is 98m and large truck are hugely popular. Indeed, when Tesla eventually come to Vietnam, the take-up will surprise to the upside.

  16. If the growth rate drops to 49.99% maybe the FUD'sters will not have much to squawk about but anything less the FUD'sters on Wall Str will say Tesla is back to bankruptcy. 😕😟😒
    For me or anyone with a brain, if Tesla can grow above 40% yr-over-yr given the macro environment globally it is fucking amazing and almost a miracle.

  17. STOP using the term RED HEADED STEPCHILD! come up with another analogy, if your smart, that shouldn't be hard to do.

  18. The super short range Model 3 that they software locked was in Canada. They did that because Canada price cap was set on the base model, so as long as one of the Model 3 for sell in Canada was below 45k, all Model 3 trims would be eligible for the government incentive. They never offered (and said upfront that they never would) the option to upgrade the range over as an upgrade though, probably because they didn't intend to sell a single one of those (the range was unusable, something closer to a plug-in hybrid than an actual EV).

  19. I'm in line for the 500 mile ct or longer with whatever the motor setup ends up with. I have a lightning pro and the towing range and $hitty charging network will be a distant memory with tesla supercharger and the most efficient drivetrain available. Tesla will be the only meaningful road trip hauler as no-one else will catch up with the supercharger network…

  20. So, the credits regarding battery materials have to do with trade status; I know that Australia qualifies. One thing that you guys didn’t discuss, so far is the battery specific credits which are beyond the base $7500 credit.

  21. Another thought, at least from the consumer energy products, Tesla hasn’t done well with support. This is something they need to fix going forward.

  22. 6m too big for Europe when there are useless SUVs that are 5m long? For what I think people use these vehicles for Definitely not too long. It could be longer. But I admit that maybe for some people like the guy here maybe he needs a 5,5m cyber truck with a useless boot and a useless tiny back bed.

  23. Re: Tesla's Project Highland

    Could Tesla's Project Highland be the affordable electric car people are looking for? Is the naming of "Project Highland" a hint? From Wikipedia; "On October 7, 1913, the "Highland Park" Ford Plant became the first automobile production facility in the world to implement the moving assembly line. The new assembly line improved production time of the Model T from 728 to 93 minutes. The Highland Park assembly line lowered the price of the Model T from $700 (equivalent to $20,358 in 2021) in 1910 to $350 (equivalent to $7,403 in 2021) in 1917, making it an affordable automobile for most Americans." Coincidence? Also, if you haven't read the book "Fordlandia", you might want to check it out. Remember, Elon love's history and Ford is the previous transportation disruption story. Henry Ford was also not even remotely politically correct. He pissed of so many people in the media and politics. He defiantly would have been canceled today.

  24. After Elon saying Cybertruck would cost around 25k which was a MAJOR catalyst for generating over 1 million pre-orders, I expect a huge drop in orders with the true cost and a big dip in the stock.

  25. 1:15:40 I love this bit! The heartfelt compassion is tangible. Laughing and pointing fingers at Ford would be the obvious and easy thing to do, but it's just so so important to give credit where credit is due.

  26. are the rear seats not removable ? if so you sell 7 seater only with a protective bag for the seats so you can store them in your garage .problem solved ….

  27. You have a Tesla-based channel and lifestyle so you have to get the top-spec CyberTruck for yourself and the fans 😉

  28. As the Cyber Truck blows every Dino burners doors off it needs to leave them in a cloud of glitter. 🤣

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